Seemed simple enough, but I went three iterations  calculating basic ground combat odds, air support/escort allocation and air combat.  Ugly.  The final outcomes are disjointedly summarized below.

Hex 4825 – The 11th Armored Division attacked a lone artillery unit.  The basic 5:1 odds were accompanied by an AECA of +3.  Axis air support included 2 ME-110s flying escort for a DO-17 bomber and Mixed Attack Squadron.  Both Turkish interceptors managed to penetrate the screen, but could not shoot down any bombers.  The revised odds were 7:1, +3 to the die roll.  The artillery unit was eliminated.

This attack set up  the possibility of a ZOC kill for the attack on Hex 4727.

Hex 4727 – Axis 46th and 11th Corps with 54 total factors.  Their AECA was 1/3 or a -1 die modifier.  The Turks had an armored division and cavalry division with a total of 11 strength points.  Their AECD was over 1/2 or a +2 modifier.  The basic odds were 54:11 or 4:1, with a net +1 die modifier.  Three JU-87s along with ME-109 and Me-110 escorts were assigned to the ground support mission.  The Turks responded by flying their P-40 squadron on an intercept mission.  The P-40 bypassed both escorts and shot down one JU-87.  The final odds were 62:11, or 5:1, -1 die modifier.  The die roll was a 4, -1 or 3, for a defender retreat result.  The cavalry unit was eliminated during the retreat, and the armored division cadred.

Hex 4429 – The 18th Mountain Corps and 52nd Corps attacked with 35 factors, supported by two squadrons of He-111s and a Ju-88A1 squadron.  The hex was guarded by an infanty division and border guards.  The resulting odds were 42:7 or 6:1.  The Axis rolled an exchange(!!!).  The Turkish infantry division was cadred and then eliminated during retreat.  The border unit was eliminated. The Axis cadred a winterized infantry division.

Hex 4924 – The 40th and 40 corps, with 45 strength points and an AECA of +3, attacked a Turkish division supported by an A-19 squadron.  The final odds were 45:7, or 6:1 with a +3 die modifier.  The Turkish division was eliminated.

Suddenly realized I have no idea where these Axis aircraft are coming from.  Had to pull out the Balkan Front maps and Wavell’s War OB to get location of Greek cities and airfields.  Not much out there.  Decided the Germans would have constructed some airfields in Greece in preparation for the attack.  Also decided that Bulgarian airfields were not to be used.

Caculated distance for off-map airfields/cities.  These were Kavalla, Thesalonike and Athens.  The former two, plust the three, three-capacity temporary airfields give the Axis some ability to support their initial attacks.

Here it is.

The real challenge is missions for the Luftwaffe to isolate the battlefield.

That can wait.  Off to PDX for a Third World War game/NFL wild card weekend at Tim’s.

The 40th and 14th Corps will attack out of overstack.  So will the 46th and 11th Corps.  The SS Corps is stacked with the Italian division.  The Axis must take Istanbul and establish a bridgehead across the Bosphorous by the end of this turn, or face attritional losses west of and in Istanbul.

Initial Axis Dispositions

Axis Planned Movement

I added British units in Syria and Iraq, based on garrison requirements, as well as specious Soviet troops around Tibilsi.  Grabbed the latter from Winter War.  Always like to PUB (Pretty Up The Battlefield).

Have everything set up and ready to go.  The Neutral Order of Battle calls for Turkey to receive foreign aid in the form of replacement points for upgrading units.  The Allies historically provided aid to Turkey.

I’ll use the acceptance of this Allied aid as another pretext for invasion, but will only complete one-half the 1942 upgrades.

The overall effects convert infantry divisions from supported to non-supported, upgrades the 6-4-8 light armored division to a  7-10 armored division, and adds 1 ARP, as well as Hurricanes and P-40s to the Turkish air arsenal.

Added corps troops, with Army command retaining control of some assets, including the parachute division.  The Italians provide a weak “division” to be used for rear area security (RAS).  The weak German 52nd Corps, really a reinforced division, will perform RAS and airfield construction duties.

Due to the demands of other theaters, Fliegerkorps I contains a mix of older Luftwaffe assets.  The antiaircraft units’ primary mission is airfield security.  Aircraft mix and density is also driven by a weak air opponent and the need for maximum tactical air support.

One picture is supposedly worth a thousand words.

World At War Issue #49 provides the basics task organization for German forces deployed in either Bulgaria or Greece.  War In The Desert (WITD) contains Turkish units and their initial dispositions.

However, what about allies?

At first, I assumed Germany would call on its Bulgarian allies for significant assistance.  In addition, it’s possible that revanchist Greek and pro-fascist Yugoslavian units (Chetniks) might be formed.  While the latter would be of little value in the initial attacks, they could provide rear area/security forces.

On second thought, I decided not to use these forces.  Supposedly there was a good deal of pro-German sentiment in Turkey due to their close relations before and during World War I.  To invade with long standing enemies would eliminate the possibility of any support from the nationalist Turks, much less put them in a security role policing Turkish cities.   However, Bulgarian and Greek troops might be useful if massed at the border to tie down Turkish forces.

The Germans would be on their own, with limited ground and air assistance from the Italians, ever eager for a piece of any territorial or resource pie, but already stretched thin in North Africa.

I still have to figure out what assistance the Turks might receive from either the United States and/or Great Britain.  I am assuming that the Soviet Union will be too hard pressed by the Wermacht’s summer offensives and need to hold their portion of the Iranian oil fields to provide any help to the Turks.

The next post will cover the Axis forces in detail, plus a thrilling photo of initial Turkish dispositions.

Huge Disclaimer Primarily For Those That Were And Have Probably Been Involved In Flame Wars In Any Form Of Europa List Past, Present And Future……

This is not an attempt at crafting an A Strange Alternate History Scenario……..Just playing with counters and possibilities.

Every time War In The Desert (WITD) comes off the shelf, I’ve looked at all those Turkish counters, and what a waste it is  they remain neutral and unplayed.

Information concerning “Gertrude”,  the German plan to invade Turkey, seems scarce and vague.  Strategy and Tactics published a World At War game a couple of years ago.  I bought it, looked it over, and sold it.  Too much emphasis on special operations, which seemed strange for an operational game.  However, I did note their conjectural divisional/corps Axis force list as a starting point for Europa, as Turkish initial dispositions and reinforcements are in WITD.

Gertrude was considered an unnecessary diversion of resources, given the demands of other theaters.  Maybe the operation would have taken place if Hitler pursued a Southern Strategy.

Developing a context for invasion became an interesting thought exercise.   Plausibility of each of these factors is, by definition, subject to plenty of debate and/or outright dismissal.  However, I had to start somewhere.

During the process, I came to more fully appreciate how strategically important Great Britain’s operations during the Spring and Summer of 1941 were.  During this period, Britain quashed the Golden Square’s revolt in Iraq, invaded Syria to remove the collaborationist Vichy forces and, with the Soviet Union, invaded and occupied pro-German Iran.  These actions secured Turkey’s southern borders from possible pro-German military activities.

My framework assumes these operations take place, despite the interesting possibilities inherant in an invasion of Turkey involving Vichy, Iraqi and, possibly, Iranian troops.

The framework also assumes an invasion would not have taken place in 1941 after Marita-Merkur or before Operation Barbarossa.

This leaves Spring-Summer of 1942 as a possible time frame for invasion. However, German forces were stretched to the limit for Case Blue, with other assets committed to Rommel in North Africa.

To get around these limiting elements, my framework assumes the Germans pulled back from Moscow in late 1941, avoiding significant losses during the Soviet winter counter-offensive, with greater resources available in the East for 1942’s offensives.  Also, that units in France were available for use in Gertrude.  Operation Jubilee (Dieppe) did not occur until August.

Fall Gertrude would now be a pincer aimed at meeting Case Blue’s forces in the vicinity of Grozny, securing Turkish mineral resources and the  Baku oil fields.  The victorious German forces would now threaten British held Syria and, by extension, the Suez Canal.

It’s a start.  Accepting these highly arguable assumptions, the next step was to develop a German force list.